Puzzler Answer: President Puzzler
RAY: Hi, we're back. You're listening to Car Talk with us, Click and Clack, the Tappet Brothers, and we're here to talk, of course, of course, about cars, car repair and the answer to last week's Puzzler. And here it is.
TOM: Has to do with early American history and statistics. That's what you said.
RAY: Well, math anyway. Statistics, I suppose--that branch of mathematics.
TOM: OK. I still have no idea what it is.
RAY: Christopher from Atlanta writes, "My friend Max says to me, 'I just read that three of the first five presidents of the United States died on the Fourth of July. What do you think the odds of that happening are?' I say, 'No idea. But I'll give you 10-to-one odds that I can name at least one of the three.' And, of course, he takes the bet. Now," he says, he goes on, he says, "I don't know anything about the first five presidents except that their names are...," what? Who's the first?
TOM: George Washington.
RAY: There you go. Second?
TOM: No idea.
RAY: Adams.
TOM: Uh, Adams.
RAY: John Adams.
TOM: Oh.
RAY: Jefferson. Right.
TOM: Tommy? Jefferson was number three?
RAY: Yeah.
TOM: OK.
RAY: George Jefferson.
TOM: So we got George Washington...
RAY: Madison. Right?
TOM: Yeah, Dolly Madison.
RAY: And Bill Monroe. In that order. OK?
TOM: Yeah. Got it.
RAY: How am I justified in offering my friend 10-to-one odds when, guessing randomly, I have only a three-in-five chance of guessing correctly? So, that's the question. What makes me so sure I can guess at least one of them on the first try? I think I'd preface this by saying this is for the kids in the audience.
TOM: Kids, hunh?
RAY: Well, I think so.
TOM: Kids are supposed to know this?
RAY: Well, if it hadn't been Monroe, if Monroe hadn't been one of the three--he was the fifth guy--
TOM: Yeah.
RAY: That's the guy he's guessing.
TOM: Ohhhh.
RAY: If he hadn't been...
TOM: Why would you have to say that?
RAY: Why would you say three of the first five? The thing would have said three of the first four. Monroe must be one of them. Otherwise...
TOM: Well...well...
RAY: No, well, nothing!
TOM: Well, he could be!
RAY: Well, you could have said three of the first 20!
TOM: Exactly!
RAY: Well, that would have been pretty stupid, wouldn't it?
TOM: Well, sure. But three of the first five--you could have said that just to obfuscate!
RAY: I know...
TOM: Well, it would be true!
RAY: No, he says he read it someplace. And wherever he read it would have said three of the first four if Monroe weren't among them.
TOM: Yeah, you're right.
RAY: Of course. Don't try to cloud the issue!
TOM: Yeah. He read it somewhere. If he read it somewhere...but if I were trying to trick you…
RAY: As you always are.
TOM: I mean, that would be a great way to trick you! I could have said three of the first seven. And you would have picked number seven, and you would have been wrong!
RAY: No, maybe...
TOM: Because it was Monroe!
RAY: Maybe he died on the Fourth of July too.
TOM: Is it true?
RAY: I have no idea. Did you check this, Catherine? You didn't check it.
TOM: I don't believe...
RAY: Mayer, did you check it? No. Berman, did you check it? No. Rogers? No.
TOM: Dennis? No.
RAY: It's probably [???] with this. It's all right--we'll get more mail. Do we have a winner?
TOM: It doesn't matter because we have a winner anyway. The winner this week is April Ralph. I got confused because I thought it said Ralph in April. The winner this week is April Ralph from League City--what is this?--Texas. And for having her correct answer chosen from among the thousands of correct answers that we got this week, April will get a $25 gift certificate to the Car Talk Shameless Commerce Division, with which, as you know, she can pick up our new Puzzler book, "A Haircut in Horsetown," which contains not only all our all-time greatest Car Talk Puzzlers, but also, at no extra charge--no extra charge--the answers to those Puzzlers!
RAY: And most of the answers are right.
[ Car Talk Puzzler ]
